THE PROBLEM STATEMENT The unpredictable weather forecast leads to Mr. William Jaegers dilemma to justify whether harvesting the Riesling grapes immediately, or leaving them on the vines despite of approaching storm in order to maximize profit. ROOT CAUSES / ANALYSIS Basically, there are three main causes that led to Jaegers dilemma in decision-making: 1) The reputation of Freemark Abbey Winery (FAW) The winery produced only premium wines from the best grape varieties. If Freemark Abbey were to harvest the Riesling grapes immediately, it is only able to produce wine from not-quite-ripe grapes. However, delaying the harvest would be risky as rain could damage the crop. On the other hand, rain could be beneficial and greatly increase the value of resulting wine; especially there is a probability to produce botrytised Riesling grapes, which has extraordinary concentration that is highly valued by connoisseurs. And, although there is a risk of producing wine from rain-soaked grapes, but with luck, the possibility of grapes reaching 25% sugar level or would probably top 20%, w......

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